Ford Motor (NYSE:F) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. Consensus projects earnings of about $0.33 per share, down from $0.47 per share in the year-ago quarter, while revenues are likely to come in at about $43.93 billion, down 2% compared to the last year. Ford has already reported its vehicle delivery numbers for the U.S. for Q2, with sales rising 14.2% year-over-year to 612,095 units. Growth was driven primarily by strong demand for pickups such as the F-Series, Ranger, and Maverick, which collectively saw a 15% increase. F-Series sales rose 11.5% to 222,459 units – marking the best Q2 since 2019. A higher mix of pickup sales, which are much more profitable than sedans, could help support Ford’s margins.
The new tariffs on autos and components imposed by the Trump Administration may weigh on costs and profitability over the quarter. For perspective, Ford’s peer GM took a $1.1 billion hit to its Q2 earnings due to the tariffs. That said, Ford may be better positioned than most rivals, with an estimated 80% of its U.S. sales in 2024 coming from domestically assembled vehicles.
The company has $44 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $183 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $4.3 billion in operating profits and net income of $5.0 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Ford Motor’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -8.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like Ford Motor, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception
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