Tweezer Top in Equal Weight S&P – Double Top Semiconductors

Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don’t want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the announcement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Survey – perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted.

In the past, this has been a bullish signal as the low in sentiment preceded the low in markets – but markets are at multi-year highs, so I have no idea what will come next.

Of the indices, we have a couple that are showing topping patterns. If going short, then I wouldn’t be holding if they go 1% beyond those highs. The more reliable pattern is the tweezer top in the equal-weighted S&P (). This is looking like a classic reversal play, so shorts have a decent opportunity here.

The hasn’t delivered a clear topping pattern, and hasn’t yet reached its measured move target. There isn’t much more to say about this.

The () continued its reversal off the bearish ’black’ candlestick. I would view this as a weak signal as it’s exhibiting solid step-by-step gains and offers the best risk-reward for longs.

are the other shorting opportunity. After successfully reaching its measured move target it’s looking ready to make a move lower, although every potential shorting opportunity the index has presented has been blown away. Proceed with caution with the latest offering. There is a weak ’sell’ signal in the MACD, and the ADX is in flux.

Another (better) shorting opportunity is . We have had the rejection of the 200-day MA, and now we are seeing a potential rejection of the 20-day MA after a weak bounce off the test of February lows. Only the MACD is offering a weak ’buy’ signal.

For today, best trades look to be shorting Bitcoin or the equal-weighted S&P, where everything else is looking like a (long) hold.