SpaceX IPO Timing Raises Stakes for US Stock Market’s Long Rally

Key Highlights:

• Japan’s climbed as chip-related heavyweights surged. Asian markets eked out gains Tuesday, and oil eased from highs after Israel and Iran agreed to pause strikes, while investors bought the dip in semiconductor stocks.
• prices slipped Tuesday, erasing most of Monday’s gains after Iran and Israel said they’d halted strikes following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump, though both warned fighting could resume. crude (LCOc1) fell $0.91 (1%) to $93.34 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (CLc1) dropped $1.13 (1.2%) to $90.17 a barrel.
• The hovered near a two‑month high Tuesday, firming against most major currencies as Middle East tensions dented risk appetite and traders raised bets on a rate hike later this year. The was $1.1528 and sterling $1.3335, each down about 0.05% in Asian trading after hitting two‑month lows in the prior session.
• was largely steady Tuesday as traders weighed a fragile Israel‑Iran ceasefire and broader Middle East developments, alongside inflation and rate‑hike concerns. Spot gold rose 0.05% to $4,331.90 per ounce as of 05:14 GMT, after touching a two‑month low in the prior session.
• OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, said on Monday it has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, joining rival Anthropic as AI firms move toward public markets amid investor demand for AI exposure. Reuters reported the company could seek a valuation of up to $1 trillion and aim for a debut as early as September.

U.S. stock index futures held gains Monday evening after Israel and Iran agreed to halt strikes, while chipmakers recovered some of last week’s losses. At 12:23 a.m. ET (04:23 GMT), were up 0.54% at 7,433.75, rose 0.57% to 29,620.50, and edged up 0.09% to 50,900.00.

Stocks ended mixed Monday as technology shares bounced back from recent declines amid concerns about how the Federal Reserve might respond to inflation. Investors are watching for fresh inflation data later this week. The gained 0.3%, the rose 0.9%, and the added 0.8% as small-cap stocks climbed, while the slipped 0.2%.

Investors relaxed after Iran and Israel said they had halted strikes following a direct appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump to “stop shooting” immediately. The 24-hour flare-up was the most direct clash between the two since an April ceasefire.

US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:

Investors will get another gauge of the impact of the Iran conflict on prices when May’s Consumer Price Index is released on Wednesday. In April, the rose 3.8% year over year — the biggest annual gain in nearly three years — driven partly by a more than 28% jump in gasoline. The conflict has effectively closed much of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20% of global oil, fertilizer, and other commodities. , which excludes food and energy, climbed 2.8% year over year, suggesting energy-driven price pressures are broadening across the economy.

Thursday’s offers important data that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the . The University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading is due Friday.

After the energy-price surge, futures now price in higher odds of this year instead of cuts, reversing earlier expectations of equity-friendly rate reductions in early 2026.

and ’s quarterly results will be in focus. Technology has long driven the U.S. market, and a recent surge pushed the sector to over 39% of the S&P 500’s market cap this week — its highest level on record. The earnings will gauge the durability of the tech rally and a software sector rebound after steep early‑year losses tied to AI-disruption concerns. Oracle is up about 21% year‑to‑date, while Adobe is down roughly 26%.

Economic Calendar (Week of June 09 – 12)

Tuesday June 9

• , Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories.

Wednesday June 10

• Consumer Price Index (CPI), EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Treasury Budget.

Thursday June 11

• Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI).

Friday June 12

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

A more detailed calendar.

Key Earnings Calendar (Week of June 09-12)

Tuesday June 9

• Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO); Casey’s General Stores (CASY); Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL); J.M. Smucker (SJM); SailPoint (SAIL); Uranium Energy (UEC); VinFast Auto (VFS)

Wednesday June 10

• Anterix (ATEX); Chewy (CHWY); Core & Main (CNM); Navan (NAVN); Oracle (ORCL);Oxford Industries (OXM)

Thursday June 11

• Adobe (ADBE);Aurora Cannabis (ACB); Lennar (LEN); Lovesac (LOVE); McGraw Hill (MH); RH (RH)

Friday (6/12): No scheduled reports

A more detailed calendar.

ORCL reports Q4 on Wednesday. After a steep sell-off earlier this year, shares have rallied over 60% since April. Analysts say worries have shifted from demand to execution, pressuring Oracle to convert its >$500 billion in AI cloud contracts into revenue. FactSet estimates call for adjusted EPS up 15% and revenue up 20%.

Casey’s reports fiscal Q4 on Tuesday. Consensus expects EPS up 26% and revenue up 8%. Evercore raised its price target to 915 on May 18 and kept an outperform rating. Shares have retreated from mid‑May highs.

ADBE reports fiscal Q2 on Thursday. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $5.82 (+15% YoY) on revenue of $6.46 billion (+10%).

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for June 01 -05, 2026, suggests “History suggests bulls often hold the upper hand in week two of June!”
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.