A Kalshi IPO could be on the way after the prediction market firm opened informal IPO discussions with investment banks after its annualized revenue surpassed $2Bn, double the $1Bn run rate the Wall Street Journal reported in March 2026.
The company’s $22Bn valuation and $16.81Bn in May trading volume anchored what would be one of the largest fintech public offerings in recent memory, becoming the latest in line across the recent IPO craze.
The revenue acceleration came less than six weeks after Kalshi closed a $1Bn Series F led by Coatue, with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest among the participants, at the same $22Bn valuation.
That $22Bn valuation is roughly double the approximately $11Bn Series E valuation the company carried as recently as December 2025.
Kalshi IPO: $16.81Bn May Volume, 2.4x Polymarket, and an Annualized Trading Run Rate That Hit $178Bn Before the IPO Clock Started
Source: Dune.com/kalshi
In May, Kalshi’s trading volume reached $16.81Bn, surpassing Polymarket’s $7.08Bn by 2.4x, according to The Block and DeFiLlama.
This marked an increase from April’s $14.81Bn for Kalshi and $9.01Bn for Polymarket. The shift highlights Kalshi’s regulatory advantages, given its centralized, CFTC-regulated model, compared to Polymarket’s decentralized approach.
Kalshi’s trading volume saw massive growth, going from $52Bn to $178Bn annually, with institutional trading rising more than 800%.
The platform claims over 90% of US prediction market activity and a majority of global volume, with around 85% of recent transactions linked to sports markets, driving both growth and regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi IPO News: Series F at $22Bn Valuation Implies 18x Annualized Revenue and Signals the Market Is Pricing a Derivatives Exchange, Not a Consumer App
Kalshi’s $22Bn valuation after its Series F implies an 11x revenue multiple on the current $2Bn annualized revenue, potentially aligning with exchange-level multiples if growth continues.
Sacra’s research positions Kalshi as a “new asset class,” with fee-take rates of around 1.2% of processed volume and a more robust revenue profile than earlier consumer-only prediction markets.
With $178Bn in annualized trading volume and a blended take rate of about 1.1–1.2%, the $2Bn revenue figure shows structural support. Informal IPO discussions are underway, with bankers under consideration and financial models being tested ahead of an S-1 filing.
Kalshi gained significant attention for its accurate predictions in the 2024 presidential election, driving interest from both retail and institutional investors. The 2026 midterm elections could further boost volume and position Kalshi IPO ahead of Polymarket before any public listing.
Kentucky Becomes Latest State to Sue Kalshi as the CFTC Asserts Exclusive Federal Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets
Kentucky has sued Kalshi, claiming it operates an unlicensed sports betting platform in violation of state gambling laws. This lawsuit is part of a broader multi-state legal effort affecting Polymarket and similar entities.
The states argue that event contracts tied to sports outcomes are gambling products requiring state licensing, regardless of their federal classification. In response, gaming industry groups have urged lawmakers to include language in crypto market legislation that would ban prediction markets from listing sports-related contracts.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has countersued, asserting that the Commodity Exchange Act grants it exclusive federal jurisdiction over designated contract markets such as Kalshi, thereby overriding state laws.
Kalshi’s CFTC designation as a designated contract market, granted in 2020, supports its classification. As the jurisdictional conflict remains unresolved, it poses a significant risk to Kalshi’s IPO timeline and product offerings, especially since sports contracts account for about 85% of their volume.
What to Watch: CFTC Preemption Rulings, State Lawsuit Outcomes, Formal Banker Mandates, and the 2026 Midterm Volume Test
The key signal to watch is whether federal courts issue preliminary injunctions against state actions affecting Kalshi while the CFTC’s preemption argument is litigated.
A favorable ruling could clarify operational uncertainties and speed up the Kalshi IPO timeline. Following informal banker discussions, formal selection would be the next milestone, usually occurring six to twelve months before an S-1 filing.
Pre-IPO platforms like Forge are already attracting investor interest and providing real-time valuation insights as the legal situation evolves.
The 2026 midterm elections could serve as a catalyst and proof of concept for Kalshi’s prediction markets, potentially enhancing the revenue outlook for public investors.
A critical question during the IPO will be whether Kalshi’s $22Bn valuation, largely based on sports-betting volumes that are subject to state prohibitions, can withstand public-market scrutiny amid ongoing jurisdictional issues with the CFTC.
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