Russ Cohen

The Accelerating Earnings Growth Trajectory

Recent Earnings Trends

Total earnings for the 440 S&P 500 members that reported Q1 results saw a 5.0% increase from the same period last year. This rise in earnings was accompanied by a 4.2% increase in revenues. A substantial number of companies, 78.0%, exceeded EPS estimates, while 60.9% surpassed revenue estimates.

Looking Towards the Future

Projections for 2024 Q2 indicate a predicted 9.2% growth in S&P 500 earnings compared to the same period in the previous year. This increase in earnings is expected to accompany a 4.5% rise in revenues. Estimates have shown a positive trend since the beginning of April, with the current earnings growth forecast of 9.2% exceeding the early April projection of 8.7%.

Yearly Outlook

The full-year 2024 outlook predicts an 8.9% growth in total S&P 500 earnings, following a decline in the previous year. Excluding the influential Tech sector with anticipated earnings growth of 15.9%, the rest of the index is projected to experience a more moderate 6.3% increase in earnings.

The recent weeks have heralded an encouraging trend in overall estimate revisions. The positive momentum is evident both in the Q2 2024 estimates and the annual 2024 projections. Sectors like Tech and Retail have enjoyed positive estimate revisions for some time now, with half of the Zacks sectors showing higher aggregate earnings estimates than predicted at the beginning of the year.

Focus on Energy Sector and ‘Magnificent 7’ Stocks

Noteworthy attention has been paid to the Energy sector’s favorable revisions trend. This week’s discussions are set to focus on the evolving earnings outlook for the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

See also  Netflix's Stellar Performance in Q1 2024The Raging Success of the Streaming Giant

Netflix reported exceptional first-quarter 2024 earnings of $5.28 per share, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a staggering 17.07%. This marked a remarkable 83.3% surge from the preceding year, reflecting the company's undeniable prowess in the streaming industry.

The streaming behemoth saw revenues soar to $9.37 billion, showcasing a robust 14.8% year-over-year growth that surpassed the consensus expectations by 1.18%. The surge can be attributed to a strategic combination of revenue initiatives, such as cracking down on password-sharing, introducing an ad-supported tier, and implementing recent price hikes on select subscription plans.

The Growth Engine: Subscriber Momentum

Netflix ended the first quarter with a solid user base of 269.6 million paid subscribers spanning over 190 countries globally, depicting a commendable 16% annual increase. The company experienced a considerable influx of new customers, with a strong presence noted in the United States and Canada.

The quarter saw a substantial uptick of 9.33 million paid subscribers worldwide, accompanied by a 1% increase in average revenue per membership (ARM) on a reported basis and a robust 4% growth on a foreign-exchange neutral basis. This impressive performance follows the addition of 1.75 million paid subscribers in the corresponding period last year.

In a bid to diversify its content offerings, Netflix attributed its success to exclusive intellectual property like original series, including critically acclaimed titles like "Griselda," "3 Body Problem," "Avatar: The Last Airbender," "Love Is Blind Season 6," "American Nightmare," and "Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer."

The platform also noted significant viewership of U.K. content and original Korean titles, underscoring the global appeal of its diverse content library.

Expanding Horizons and Strategic Shifts

In a bold move to solidify its dominance in the streaming landscape, Netflix is venturing into new territories such as live events. The company recently secured a groundbreaking $5 billion deal to exclusively stream WWE's flagship wrestling show, "Raw," disrupting traditional broadcast paradigms that have stood unchallenged for over three decades.

Furthermore, Netflix forged a strategic partnership with Rockstar Games’ "Grand Theft Auto" franchise, signaling its foray into the lucrative video game sector—a move that is poised to redefine the boundaries of entertainment convergence.

A surprising announcement by Netflix detailed its decision to discontinue reporting paid quarterly membership and revenue per subscriber starting Q1 2025. This strategic pivot aims to shift investor focus towards long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations influenced by transient factors like programming changes and economic volatility.

While tech titans like Apple and Amazon maintain secrecy around their streaming subscriber figures, Netflix's transparent approach sets it apart in an industry where data privacy often trumps transparency.

Shares of Netflix have exhibited extraordinary resilience, delivering a robust 25.4% YTD return that eclipses the performance of industry stalwarts like Apple, Amazon, and Disney.

Unveiling Netflix's Segmental Revenue Landscape

Breaking down its regional revenue streams, Netflix's United States and Canada segment boasted revenues of $4.22 billion, representing a commendable 17.1% year-over-year increase and accounting for 45.1% of total revenues. The ARPU in this segment rose by 6.9% from the prior year.

The European, Middle Eastern, and African market witnessed revenues of $2.95 billion, marking a 17.5% annual upsurge and contributing 31.6% to the company's overall revenues.

In the Latin American region, revenues amounted to $1.16 billion, with an 8.9% year-over-year increase and a subscriber base of 47.72 million.

The Asia Pacific segment recorded revenues of $1.02 billion, showing a strong 9.6% growth, underscoring the company's burgeoning presence and subscriber base in this lucrative market.

Netflix's Financial Report for Q1 2024 Netflix's Financial Performance Shines with Steady Growth

The broader view encapsulates the aggregate annual earnings figures for this distinguished group.

The landscape for earnings revisions has seen contrasting trends for prominent companies such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). While Tesla has faced consistent negative revisions, the negative impact on Apple’s estimates has been less severe. However, the positive revisions for the other five members are significant enough to counterbalance the effects of Tesla and Apple, with Nvidia (NVDA) notably standing out among them.

An analysis of the sector’s aggregate full-year earnings estimate evolution over the last year showcases a dynamic picture.

Additionally, examining how the S&P 500’s aggregate earnings estimates for full-year 2024 have evolved offers valuable insights.

The holistic earnings panorama for the S&P 500 on an annual basis is depicted below.

Anticipated earnings growth for the current year is expected to be driven by a reversal of last year’s margin declines, with a projected resurgence in net margins to 2022 levels. Notably, the Tech sector is expected to be a primary driver of these gains.

A significant portion of the earnings boost is forecasted to stem from margin improvements, with the Tech sector set to play a leading role in this resurgence.