Shopify SHOP is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Shopify expects revenue growth in the high-20% range year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $3.43 billion, suggesting growth of 28.11% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 39 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days and indicating 11.43% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Consensus Estimate Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SHOP’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, matched once and missed once, the earnings surprise being 7.38%, on average.
Shopify Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Shopify Inc. price-eps-surprise | Shopify Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.
Key Factors to Note for SHOP’s Q2
Shopify’s second-quarter 2026 results are expected to have benefited from sustained growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) across merchant sizes, geographies and sales channels. Continued strength in North America and Europe, rising international adoption and balanced contributions from new merchants and same-store sales are likely to have supported revenues. Momentum among large merchants, including enterprise brands migrating from legacy commerce systems, is also expected to have driven Shopify Plus subscriptions, variable platform fees and merchant solutions revenues.
Higher adoption of Shopify Payments and Shop Pay is likely to have been another major growth driver. In the first quarter, Shopify Payments processed $67 billion of GMV, up 41% year over year, while penetration expanded 3% to 67%. Shop Pay GMV grew 59%, supported by more than 70% growth outside the United States. Continued payments adoption in recently entered European markets, Mexico and other international regions is expected to have boosted Merchant Solutions revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Shopify’s expanding omnichannel portfolio is also expected to have aided growth. Offline GMV increased 33% in the first quarter, while B2B GMV surged 80%, reflecting demand for unified online, physical retail and wholesale capabilities. The Shop app, which recorded 70% GMV growth, and Shop Campaigns are likely to have supported customer discovery and merchant sales. AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased eightfold, while orders originating from AI-powered searches rose nearly 13-fold, indicating growing contributions from emerging shopping channels.
However, Shopify’s second-quarter profitability is expected to have faced pressure from the faster growth of lower-margin Merchant Solutions revenues compared with Subscription Solutions revenues. Shopify projected gross profit dollar growth in the mid-20% range, below expected revenue growth in the high 20s, primarily due to revenue mix and continued payments strength. Moreover, rising technology and credit-related costs might also have weighed on margins.
Increased merchant use of Sidekick is expected to have driven higher large-language-model infrastructure expenses, a trend Shopify expects to continue. Transaction and loan losses increased to $116 million in the first quarter from $75 million in the year-ago quarter, reflecting expansion of Shopify Capital, credit and payments products. The allowance for uncollectible loans also rose as the company expanded its merchant financing portfolio, increasing potential exposure to merchant defaults. Moreover, reduced foreign-exchange support is likely to have been headwind.
SHOP Shares Outperform Sector
SHOP shares have dropped 27.2% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s rise of 11.7%.
Shopify has outperformed peers including Wix.com WIX and Commerce.com CMRC but lagged Amazon AMZN. YTD, Amazon shares have returned 17.6% while Wix.com and Commerce.com shares have dropped 47% and 24%, respectively.
SHOP Stock’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Moreover, the Value Score of F suggests a stretched valuation for Shopify at this moment.
SHOP stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price/sales of 9.11X compared with the sector’s 6.28X, Amazon’s 3.26X, Wix.com’s 1.33X and Commerce.com’s 0.72X.
Shopify’s Current Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AI Push, Expanding International Footprint to Aid SHOP
Shopify’s long-term prospects are supported by its expanding role across the entire commerce lifecycle. The company is moving beyond storefront and checkout services toward product discovery, advertising, payments, financing, B2B, point-of-sale and international commerce. The company’s unified platform allows merchants to manage online, offline, wholesale and cross-border operations through a single system. The number of merchants generating more than $100 million in annual GMV has nearly doubled over the past two years, highlighting Shopify’s growing appeal to large enterprises.
AI represents another significant long-term opportunity. Sidekick’s weekly active merchant base increased roughly fourfold year over year, with merchants using it to create applications, automate workflows and modify storefronts. Shopify’s catalog contains more than one billion structured products with current pricing and inventory information, enabling AI platforms to surface more relevant products. Integrations with ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google and Meta, along with Shopify’s role in developing the Universal Commerce Protocol, should strengthen its position in agentic commerce.
International expansion and deeper monetization of Shopify Payments offer additional upside. Shopify currently provides Payments in 39 countries and sees opportunities to increase penetration in existing regions and launch in additional markets. Localization through regional currencies, payment methods, merchant financing and language recommendations should reduce barriers to adoption. Strong growth in B2B, Shop Pay, the Shop app and offline commerce could further increase the number of services used by each merchant and strengthen Shopify’s recurring revenue base.
However, Shopify operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving commerce market. The company must continue investing in AI, payments, security, infrastructure and international localization to remain competitive against commerce platforms, marketplaces and specialized software providers. Increasing reliance on AI also creates uncertainty regarding infrastructure costs, product adoption and the ability to generate returns sufficient to offset growing model-compute expenses.
Conclusion
Shopify’s second-quarter results are likely to reflect robust GMV growth, increasing adoption of Shopify Payments and Shop Pay, enterprise merchant wins and continued momentum across B2B, offline and international commerce. AI-driven tools and emerging shopping channels provide additional growth opportunities.
Shopify currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which implies that investors should start accumulating the stock ahead of the second-quarter earnings. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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