Oracle Earnings Preview: Results to Test If AI Backlog Can Turn Into Cloud Revenue

Oracle will report fiscal fourth-quarter results after closing, with investors watching whether it can turn a large AI backlog into revenue while maintaining cloud infrastructure growth.

The company guided for 19%–21% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $1.96–$2.00 for the quarter, versus analysts’ expectations of $19.10 billion in revenue and $1.96 EPS.

Key Highlights

• shares are up about 9% in 2026, recovering from February lows amid a broader tech rally and brighter sentiment on AI, but remain roughly 40% below their September peaks as worries persist over the company’s heavy exposure to OpenAI and the debt taken on to expand its data-center network.
• Investor enthusiasm for AI-related stocks has cooled after Broadcom’s earnings fell short of growth expectations, with down 9.1% and the off nearly 5% reflecting heightened scrutiny of AI spending and returns.
• Cloud expansion is driving Oracle’s transformation from legacy software to cloud and AI infrastructure, led by Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI); Bloomberg analysts forecast OCI revenue to climb 92% in the fiscal fourth quarter versus 52% a year earlier, fueling faster overall revenue growth.
• Robust cloud demand has accelerated Oracle’s growth in Q3 the company recorded its first quarter in over 15 years with both revenue and organic earnings up more than 20%. Bulls point to a $553 billion remaining performance obligations backlog contracted future revenue commonly used to gauge long-term demand.
• Oracle’s heavy AI investments are straining its finances. Capex surged to $50 billion versus $12.1 billion in the comparable nine-month period a year earlier, and the company in February said it may raise up to $50 billion via bonds and convertible preferred stock to fund expansion. The spending has hit cash generation; trailing free cash flow is minus $24.7 billion, and analysts expect FCF to remain negative, about $3.5 billion, in the fiscal fourth quarter.
• As Oracle pivots to cloud infrastructure, margins and leverage are drawing scrutiny. Debt and lease liabilities jumped 68% to $162 billion in the latest quarter, plus $261 billion of lease obligations not yet commenced as of February. Depreciation tied to the buildout rose to 12.5% of companywide sales from 7.1% a year earlier.

Analysts Expectation

• BofA Securities raised its Oracle (ORCL) price target to $240 from $200 and kept a Buy rating.
• TD Cowen lifted its price target on Oracle (ORCL) to $300 from $250 and maintained a Buy rating.
• Oppenheimer raised its price target on Oracle (ORCL) to $275 from $235 and maintained an Outperform rating.

ORCL Q4 2026 earnings after market (4:05 pm ET) Wednesday June 10, 2026        

Expected Move by Option Expiration

Recent options pricing implies that traders expect ORCL could swing about 11% either way by week’s end. A move from Wednesday’s close would take the stock to roughly $228.50 on the upside or below $183 on the downside.

The put/call ratio favor calls for the next two expirations, indicating modestly bullish positioning.

Technical Analysis Perspective

• ORCL failed to hold above the Sep 2025 earnings gap at 241.50 earlier this month.
• That rejection triggered a break below an ascending trendline from the April 2026 lows, with yesterday’s low at 197.79; 210–212 now acts as a strong resistance zone.
• The $200 level is a key psychological support ahead of today’s earnings.
• Base case: post-earnings range of 190–223; a decisive move above 223–224 would target 232.50–234.
• Alternate case: a break below 190 would expose 180–179 as the next support zone.

Daily Candlestick Chart

ORCL Seasonality Chart:

Since 2007, ORCL has finished June up an average of 3.03 in half of the years and July has averaged a 3.22% gain, occurring in 58% of years.

 

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.